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Fiber show signs of recovery

The growth rate down to become the new norm

1 to November last year, China's chemical fiber production 40.32 million tons, an increase of 6.5%, the growth rate continued to fall than in previous years, this is the normal performance of the industry through an adjustment period, but also to upgrade the inevitable result. Increase monthly production growth in the first half, the second half showing downward trend, especially in July and August off-season performance is very obvious.

Prices, due to crude oil prices plummeted in the second half, synthetic prices also fell sharply. However, raw material prices fell sharply, while prices decline less than raw materials, chemical products and therefore profit margins expand.

National Bureau of Statistics data show that in 2014, chemical fiber industry, the industrial added value growth rate of 8.5%. 1 to 12 months, the chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 27.73 billion yuan, an increase of 11.21%. Industry loss of 18.01%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points, and the amount of loss-making enterprises, an increase of 9.46%. Sub-industry perspective, the polyester industry realized a total profit of 10.409 billion yuan, an increase of 10.64 percent, 13.71 percent growth rate. Spandex efficiency of the sector continues to grow, but the growth rate dropped significantly. Profitable varieties rayon acetate fiber, viscose fiber industry and more difficult to run.

Currently, more rational production and operation, load control the market, investment will decline. Industry gradually accept and adapt to the "new normal," further deepen structural adjustment.

Slice spinning competitive pressure

Last year, the industry is running, start loading the major sub-sectors of differentiation is obvious. Spandex industry average operating rate was the highest annual remained at around 95%; PSF industry the worst, only about 65%. Three quarters into the off-season, the majority of sub-industry operating rate. Different companies operating rate varied.

Polyester filament industry, for example. The average operating rate of polyester filament appear in the New Year and the end of July last year, the two bottom, adjust than usual during the Spring Festival to be deep, off-season in July and August due to weaker demand and operating rates have dropped due to relatively large, the minimum dropped 65%. August began operating rate gradually, in the fourth quarter returned to normal levels.

Also I must mention that, in the current market context, sliced ​​spinning enterprises face showed weak trough market competitiveness. Slice spinning enterprises operating rate of 3 to 5 percent, these companies must think about how to get out of the road to a difference in competition with the melt spinning.

Nylon inventories remain high

Inventory levels are also sub-sectors were mixed. Polyester filament and polyester staple fiber in March destocking very successful, to the end of June in the normal low inventory levels increased significantly off-season in July and August, September and October fell again. The nylon stocks continued to remain high, after only a slight decline in September. Spandex industry has run also, but since has maintained a high operating rate, so inventories rose significantly.

Polyester industry investment slowdown

1 to November last year, chemical fiber industry, investment in fixed assets showed a slowdown trend. Industry new projects to reduce the number of 3.97 percent year on year, is once again in 2009 after negative growth, the actual investment 101.239 billion yuan, an increase of 4.74 percent, down 16.39 percent growth over the previous year. Among them, the polyester industry, the number of new projects and the actual investment amount decreased by about 20% year on year, indicating that the industry investment boom is fading.

Production delay or cancel

Chemical fiber industry investment boom faded, and some planned projects delayed or canceled, Although there are some projects completed, but according to the market situation does not release full capacity. Preliminary statistics, polyester production capacity 3.48 million tons, accounting for half of the early projects planned production statistics.

2015 plans to put into the project, the majority from 2014 to postpone or over, the total polyester production capacity of about 3.4 million tons, according to the actual situation, estimated at about only 50% of capacity can actually reach production.

0.27 percentage point margin improvement

Chemical fiber industry profits in the second quarter recovery, August significantly reduced profits. 9 to 12 months, although prices continued to decline, but the raw material prices have also declined, the spread of space as well as the amplification of some products, and therefore increase profits. 1 to 11 months, the chemical fiber industry profit margin 3.85%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points.
Oil, cotton double impact worthy of attention

Chemical fiber industry is running one of the factors significantly affected the past year, crude oil prices fell sharply. Globally, crude oil oversupply, prices fell sharply in late 2014 WTI oil price fell to $ 55 / barrel, compared to June highs cut. Synthetic materials lose support costs, prices also fell sharply. This directly affects the subsequent movements of the relevant chemical species.

In addition, after the cotton policy changes, the staple cotton price gap. Affected by domestic cotton policy adjustment, the domestic cotton prices fell sharply, with the polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber price difference is shrinking, the price of a certain comparative advantages, the amount of synthetic staple fiber on the market will have some impact. But after the release of cotton, for the country as a whole to enhance the competitiveness of the textile industry is a major positive, chemical fiber industry will also benefit from the overall progress of the textile industry.

In addition, last year, chemical industry mergers and acquisitions in progress. Rely on market regulation and industry guidance, the capital market in the same trade flows between assets and restructuring, chemical industry mergers and acquisitions in progress. According to incomplete statistics, there are three listed companies to exit the fiber business. For example, China Resources Jinhua change last November 11 for Skyworth Digital, will transfer its 72% stake in Yantai nylon textile holdings to CR.

Year run quality will improve

By 2015, the global economy will continue to maintain a weak recovery trend, China's economy has maintained steady growth in high-speed, fiber industry will create a macro environment running smoothly. Steady growth of the textile industry to make fiber demand is expected to improve. International oil prices may restrain Young Front, along with chemical products prices may rebound, but the PTA surplus situation is hard to change, still need to rely on cuts to stabilize the market, coupled with the pressure of Polyester new capacity is expected to rebound much polyester products . Chemical fiber industry as a whole may run slightly better than 2014.

Chemical fiber industry in 2015 is expected to yield 46 million tons, an increase of about 5% or so; total profit growth over the previous year, operating quality improved.

Chemical fiber industry, the focus of this work is to resolve capacity pressures, optimize inventory, control increment, expand the application. In addition, the industry to promote energy saving advanced technology, Sesi to seize development opportunities; expedite the implementation of mergers and acquisitions, to accelerate the backward production capacity out.

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