+86-519-86266888 gxhx888@126.com
Textile and Apparel Industry Weekly: In August, the growth of social zero clothing performance was dull

Last week, the textile and apparel sector performed weaker than the market. Last week, the Shenwan Textile and Apparel Index fell 2.17%, weaker than the Shenwan A Index by 0.49 percentage points. Among them, the clothing home textile index fell 1.32%, stronger than the Shenwan A index by 0.36 percentage points; the textile manufacturing index fell 3.57%, weaker than the Shenwan A index by 1.89 percentage points.

Recent key data review: 1) In August 2018, the total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide increased by 9.0% year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in the first eight months increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was flat, down 1.1pct from the same period of last year. 2) In August, the retail sales of textiles and apparels above designated size increased by 7.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased in June and July (+10%, +8.7%), which was better than that in May (+6.6%). On the whole, the growth rate of textile and apparel products was 8.9%, and the growth rate was 1.6pct higher than the same period of last year. 3) From January to August, the online retail sales of apparel category increased by 23.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate declined slightly. We believe that the overall data of the social zero in August is slightly better than the market's previously expected downside expectations. However, there is no inflection point in the demand for textile and apparel in the optional consumption, and the growth of online channels has slowed down. Therefore, we will continue to recommend three main lines:

The recommended core molecular blocks and core targets are:

In terms of branded apparel, we believe that it is currently the stock market of selected stocks, and it is recommended to recommend the high-quality subdivision of the card. The company is the fastest and fastest quality standard in the apparel industry, and the industry adjustment in 15 and 16 years. Maintaining a steady growth in the same store, the industry as a whole has recovered in the past 18 years, and its performance has been resilient. We believe that the company's high-end casual apparel field is high-quality, with limited competitors' layout, and the company has strong barriers under years of operation. At the same time, by studying the growth history of overseas high-quality companies, we believe that the high-end casual wear market with sports attributes has a broad market, and grows RalphLauren, a giant with a market value of over tens of billions of dollars and a global network of over 10,000. We expect the company's 18-year and 19-year compound growth rate to be more than 40%, giving a target value of 25 times in 19 years, which is 40%+ space. In addition, high-end women's clothing is expected to usher in valuation repair. At present, Song Lisi and Anzheng Fashion are only 15 times and 14 times PE in 18 years. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation repair space.

We have recommended upstream textile manufacturing in multiple rounds since July, and the new cotton market is expected to catalyze the rise in cotton prices, thus releasing performance flexibility. On July 12th, we released an in-depth report on the Vietnam series, which analyzed the positive layout of domestic textile leaders such as Bundong Oriental, Lutai and Shenzhou International. On July 31, we released the in-depth report on the cotton spinning industry, optimistic about the leader of the strong industry Hengqiang The price and price have risen. We once again emphasize the core logic of mainly increasing cotton prices and expanding production to promote heavy volume: In 19 years, the global cotton supply gap is certain, and the upward trend of cotton prices is expected to start, driving the overall product price increase and raising the gross profit level. At the same time, leading enterprises have taken the lead in laying out the first-mover advantage of Vietnam's production capacity. Recommend Blum Oriental: The core logic of our first Blum is that it is one of the twins of the color spinning, and the cotton price has the bargaining power for the downstream. The company currently has a production capacity of about 1.3 million spindles. At the end of August this year, there will be another 100,000 spindles of production capacity. It is expected that capacity will achieve double-digit growth in the next two years.

The leading apparel company has changed significantly since the second half of the year, and its valuation is at a historical low. We believe that under the pressure of consumption, consumers are expected to pay more attention to the cost performance of apparel products in the long run, and further benefit the leading cadres with high efficiency and competitiveness. Recommended: 1) Haishu Home: The current valuation of the company is only 12 times. Only for the first half of 2017. The company has changed positively since the second half of 2017. Many strategies such as emerging brands and overseas market expansion have come to the fore, and Tencent's shareholding cooperation has created an unlimited imagination of 10 billion industrial funds. We maintain our forecast of a 10% steady growth in revenue over the next three years. The 17-year dividend yield is as high as 4.95%. The valuation is at the bottom, and performance and dividends are expected to bring stable returns. 2) Taiping Bird: The company is expected to accelerate the opening of the store in the second half of the year, and the TOC is actively promoting it, which is expected to improve operational efficiency. As a high-quality multi-brand leader, the company has a balanced development of men's wear + women's wear and children's wear. The four-wheel drive of the channel structure is sound and stable, with an 18-year valuation of only 15 times.

Investment suggestion: In terms of brand apparel, the zero data of the company in August showed that there is no clear turning point in the demand side, and the selected stocks continue to be optimistic about the segment of the high-quality track. Long-term recommendation for the valuation of the bottom of the efficiency of the popular public clothing white horse. In terms of textile manufacturing, we are optimistic about the listing of new cotton and the upward performance of cotton prices. In the future, we are expected to increase in volume and price. Recommended targets: 1) high-quality high-end brands: Biyin Lefen, Ge Lisi, Anzheng Fashion; 2) Volkswagen Consumers: Haishu House, Taiping Bird, Senma Clothing; 3) Cotton Spinning Faucet: Blum Oriental, Lutai A; 4) High-growth e-commerce: cross-border and Antarctic e-commerce.

keywords:
Latest Product
Related Information